Your AI layoff math is off by 10x. The real number just dropped.

For every 10 jobs AI can theoretically automate, only 1 actually faces near-term displacement.

That's the 10.5:1 Exposure-to-Displacement Ratio — the first cross-institutional calculation from Axis Intelligence, Goldman Sachs, and ILO data.

The "300 million jobs at risk" headline? That's task-level exposure. The real displacement number is 2.5% of U.S. employment.

The data that should alarm every executive:

Software developers aged 22-25 saw employment fall 20% year-over-year. Aggregate developer employment held flat.

54,694 confirmed U.S. AI-attributed layoffs in 2025. Not projections. Employer-stated. Documented by a congressional report.

The ALDCI score — a new confidence index — lands at 32 out of 100 for mass unemployment scenarios. The data supports concentrated, sector-specific contraction. Not the apocalypse.

Here's what this means for your workforce plan:

The entry pipeline is collapsing while total headcount stays stable. You won't see mass layoffs. You'll see a generation locked out of careers. MIT calls it "a low-fire, low-hire dynamic."

Your junior hiring freeze isn't temporary. It's structural.

Audit your entry-level pipeline now. If your next cohort of senior engineers, analysts, and consultants isn't being hired today, you won't have them in five years. The 56% AI skills wage premium means the ones you do hire will cost double. Budget for it.